Garner Chenault

← All models

In Progress

Rocket Lab (RKLB) 3-Statement & DCF Model

Scenario shown: Bull. $ in millions except per share. Student work for educational purposes. Not investment advice.

Financial Model DCF WACC

Financial Model

Financial Statement Model for Rocket Lab
$ in millions except per share
Company name Rocket Lab
Ticker RKLB
Latest closing share price $58.31
Latest closing share price date 10/27/26
Latest fiscal year end date 12/31/25
Q4-26 diluted shares (millions) 672.0
Shares issued to Iridium (millions) 41.3
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Fiscal year end date 12/31/23 12/31/24 12/31/25 12/31/26 12/31/27 12/31/28 12/31/29 12/31/30 12/31/31 12/31/32 12/31/33 12/31/34 12/31/35 12/31/36 Comments
Revenue 244.6 436.2 601.8 962.0 2,013.3 3,166.3 3,953.2 4,783.8 5,557.3 6,327.3 7,068.4 7,684.6 8,255.7 8,894.4 From the revenue build (Assumptions).
Cost of sales (enter as -) (193.2) (320.1) (394.6) (642.7) (1,294.1) (1,960.6) (2,392.6) (2,789.5) (3,201.8) (3,609.4) (3,988.9) (4,316.1) (4,601.4) (4,955.1) Non-Neutron revenue x COGS % + Neutron revenue x (1 - Neutron margin).
Gross profit 51.4 116.1 207.2 319.3 719.2 1,205.7 1,560.6 1,994.4 2,355.5 2,718.0 3,079.6 3,368.5 3,654.4 3,939.3 Revenue + cost of sales.
Research & development (enter as -) (119.1) (174.4) (270.7) (332.9) (350.0) (350.0) (370.0) (400.0) (420.0) (441.0) (463.1) (486.2) (510.5) (536.0) R&D dollars from Assumptions.
Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (110.3) (131.6) (165.3) (236.6) (455.0) (590.0) (650.0) (705.0) (743.7) (784.7) (828.2) (874.3) (923.2) (974.9) SG&A dollars + scenario adj. + Iridium deal amortization.
Operating profit (EBIT) (177.9) (189.8) (228.8) (250.2) (85.8) 265.7 540.6 889.4 1,191.8 1,492.2 1,788.3 2,008.0 2,220.7 2,428.3 Gross profit - R&D - SG&A.
Interest income 0.0 0.0 25.5 85.8 99.7 54.8 89.3 107.3 141.2 182.1 228.4 286.7 352.0 424.9 Reference from interest schedule.
Interest expense (enter as -) (4.2) (4.0) (26.5) (2.9) (47.8) (91.6) (89.1) (84.1) (79.1) (74.1) (69.1) (64.1) (59.1) (54.1) Reference from interest schedule.
Other expense, net 3.2 4.3 3.9 (2.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Assumed zero.
Pretax profit (178.9) (189.4) (225.9) (169.3) (33.9) 229.0 540.8 912.6 1,253.9 1,600.2 1,947.6 2,230.6 2,513.6 2,799.2 EBIT + interest income - interest expense + other.
Taxes (enter expense as -) (3.6) (0.8) 27.7 (3.5) 0.0 (11.4) (54.1) (136.9) (213.2) (304.0) (409.0) (468.4) (527.9) (587.8) Pretax profit x tax rate (no tax on losses).
Net income (182.6) (190.2) (198.2) (172.8) (33.9) 217.5 486.7 775.7 1,040.8 1,296.2 1,538.6 1,762.2 1,985.8 2,211.3 Pretax profit less taxes.
Depreciation & amortization 28.5 33.7 43.9 83.4 225.7 355.1 350.5 360.5 363.0 366.6 380.8 386.1 393.2 401.9 Reference from D&A schedule.
EBITDA (149.4) (156.1) (184.9) (166.8) 139.9 620.9 891.1 1,249.8 1,554.8 1,858.8 2,169.1 2,394.1 2,613.8 2,830.2 EBIT + D&A.
Stock based compensation 53.5 56.8 71.1 85.7 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 137.8 146.1 154.8 164.1 174.0 184.4 From Assumptions; grows with SG&A.
Adjusted EBITDA (96.0) (99.3) (113.8) (81.1) 239.9 730.9 1,011.1 1,379.8 1,692.6 2,004.9 2,324.0 2,558.2 2,787.8 3,014.6 EBITDA + stock-based compensation.
Growth rates & margins
Revenue growth 78.3% 38.0% 59.9% 109.3% 57.3% 24.9% 21.0% 16.2% 13.9% 11.7% 8.7% 7.4% 7.7% Driven by the revenue build.
Gross profit margin 21.0% 26.6% 34.4% 33.2% 35.7% 38.1% 39.5% 41.7% 42.4% 43.0% 43.6% 43.8% 44.3% 44.3%
R&D % of sales 48.7% 40.0% 45.0% 34.6% 17.4% 11.1% 9.4% 8.4% 7.6% 7.0% 6.6% 6.3% 6.2% 6.0%
SG&A % of sales 45.1% 30.2% 27.5% 24.6% 22.6% 18.6% 16.4% 14.7% 13.4% 12.4% 11.7% 11.4% 11.2% 11.0%
EBIT margin (72.7%) (43.5%) (38.0%) (26.0%) (4.3%) 8.4% 13.7% 18.6% 21.4% 23.6% 25.3% 26.1% 26.9% 27.3%
EBITDA margin (61.1%) (35.8%) (30.7%) (17.3%) 7.0% 19.6% 22.5% 26.1% 28.0% 29.4% 30.7% 31.2% 31.7% 31.8%
Tax rate (effective) (2.0%) (0.4%) 12.3% (2.1%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0%
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Cash & equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 324.0 479.7 1,098.8 4,187.2 1,566.1 2,552.3 3,065.0 4,034.7 5,201.9 6,526.5 8,192.2 10,058.4 12,141.0 14,439.2 Prior year cash + 'net change in cash' from the cash flow statement.
Accounts receivable 48.2 99.5 100.6 211.6 429.0 539.8 662.5 779.0 913.7 1,048.7 1,179.4 1,287.5 1,387.4 1,499.4 Rocket Lab revenue x receivables % + Iridium receivables.
Inventories 107.9 119.1 158.4 339.2 608.9 783.2 938.0 1,071.5 1,228.9 1,385.4 1,531.7 1,656.9 1,765.2 1,900.7 Rocket Lab COGS x inventory % + Neutron hardware + Iridium.
Other current assets 76.0 55.0 90.0 125.1 224.0 304.5 401.6 504.8 600.4 696.1 788.6 864.8 935.0 1,013.9 % of Rocket Lab revenue + Iridium.
Property, plant & equipment 219.8 262.9 423.7 556.0 2,394.2 2,377.4 2,505.7 2,558.0 2,621.1 2,789.3 2,867.1 2,962.5 3,074.2 3,201.2 Reference from PP&E schedule.
Goodwill, intangibles & other non current assets 165.3 168.2 452.9 656.3 6,211.6 6,113.6 6,017.6 5,923.6 5,831.6 5,741.6 5,653.6 5,567.6 5,483.6 5,401.6 Reference from other non-current assets schedule.
Total assets 941.1 1,184.4 2,324.5 6,075.4 11,433.8 12,670.7 13,590.5 14,871.6 16,397.6 18,187.5 20,212.7 22,397.7 24,786.4 27,456.0
Accounts payable 29.3 53.1 72.7 90.0 166.4 223.0 284.5 340.9 399.5 457.7 512.2 558.6 598.8 649.1 Rocket Lab COGS x payables % + Iridium.
Other current liabilities 37.0 58.4 66.3 105.8 258.2 328.4 412.7 502.2 585.4 668.6 749.3 816.3 878.2 947.6 % of Rocket Lab revenue + Iridium.
Deferred revenue (current) 139.3 216.2 195.4 351.1 495.7 616.9 760.5 958.6 1,142.1 1,325.7 1,503.3 1,649.4 1,784.0 1,935.3 % of Rocket Lab revenue + Iridium.
Commercial paper / revolver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Not needed (large cash balance).
Long term debt (includes current portion) 105.4 401.2 154.1 1.7 1,751.7 1,751.7 1,651.7 1,551.7 1,451.7 1,351.7 1,251.7 1,151.7 1,051.7 951.7 Reference from debt schedule.
Other non current liabilities 75.7 73.0 114.0 152.0 457.8 561.3 685.0 816.3 938.6 1,061.2 1,180.1 1,279.3 1,371.5 1,474.5 % of Rocket Lab revenue + Iridium.
Total liabilities 386.7 801.9 602.6 700.7 3,130.0 3,481.3 3,794.4 4,169.8 4,517.3 4,865.0 5,196.6 5,455.4 5,684.3 5,958.2
Common stock & APIC 1,176.5 1,199.0 2,735.7 6,568.0 9,531.0 10,199.0 10,319.0 10,449.0 10,586.8 10,732.9 10,887.7 11,051.8 11,225.8 11,410.2 Reference from common stock schedule.
Retained earnings (623.5) (813.7) (1,011.9) (1,184.7) (1,218.6) (1,001.1) (514.3) 261.3 1,302.1 2,598.3 4,136.9 5,899.1 7,884.9 10,096.2 Reference from retained earnings schedule.
Other comprehensive income 1.5 (2.8) (2.0) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) (8.6) Straight-line.
Total equity 554.5 382.5 1,721.9 5,374.7 8,303.8 9,189.4 9,796.1 10,701.8 11,880.3 13,322.6 15,016.0 16,942.3 19,102.1 21,497.8
Balance check 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total assets - total liabilities - total equity. Should be 0.
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Net income (172.8) (33.9) 217.5 486.7 775.7 1,040.8 1,296.2 1,538.6 1,762.2 1,985.8 2,211.3 Reference from the income statement.
Depreciation and amortization 83.4 225.7 355.1 350.5 360.5 363.0 366.6 380.8 386.1 393.2 401.9 Reference from the income statement.
Stock based compensation 85.7 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 137.8 146.1 154.8 164.1 174.0 184.4 Non-cash, added back.
Decreases / (Increases) in working capital assets (206.1) (384.4) (365.5) (374.7) (353.1) (387.8) (387.1) (369.5) (309.5) (278.5) (326.3) Prior year - current year. 2027 adds back Iridium balances acquired (no cash).
Increases / (Decreases) in working capital liabilities 18.7 231.8 247.9 289.3 344.1 325.2 325.2 312.7 259.5 236.7 270.9 Current year - prior year. 2027 removes Iridium balances acquired.
Other non current assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Only change is amortization (in D&A) and acquired goodwill (non-cash).
Other non current liabilities (0.2) 88.6 103.4 123.7 131.3 122.3 122.6 118.9 99.2 92.2 102.9 Current year - prior year (excl. Iridium acquired).
Cash from operating activities (191.2) 227.8 668.5 995.6 1,388.5 1,601.2 1,869.5 2,136.4 2,361.7 2,603.4 2,845.1
Capital expenditures (115.1) (173.9) (240.3) (382.9) (318.8) (334.0) (444.8) (370.6) (395.5) (420.8) (446.9) Reference from PP&E schedule.
Acquisitions, net of cash acquired (44.3) (2,675.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iridium cash portion less cash acquired; stock portion is non-cash.
Cash from investing activities (159.4) (2,848.9) (240.3) (382.9) (318.8) (334.0) (444.8) (370.6) (395.5) (420.8) (446.9)
Long term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) Change in debt. Iridium loan assumed in 2027 is non-cash.
Commercial paper / revolver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reference from balance sheet.
Stock issued (net) 3,422.9 0.0 558.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reference from common stock schedule.
Share repurchases 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reference from retained earnings schedule.
Common dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reference from retained earnings schedule.
Other 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FY26: ESPP, FX, etc. (10-Q).
Cash from financing activities 3,439.0 0.0 558.0 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)
Net change in cash during period 3,088.3 (2,621.1) 986.2 512.7 969.7 1,167.1 1,324.6 1,665.8 1,866.2 2,082.5 2,298.3 CFO + CFI + CFF. Feeds cash on the balance sheet.
PROPERTY, PLANT & EQUIPMENT
Fiscal year 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Beginning of period 556.0 2,394.2 2,377.4 2,505.7 2,558.0 2,621.1 2,789.3 2,867.1 2,962.5 3,074.2 BOP = previous year EOP.
Plus: Capital expenditures 173.9 240.3 382.9 318.8 334.0 444.8 370.6 395.5 420.8 446.9 Total capex from Assumptions.
Plus: PP&E acquired (Iridium) 1,820.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iridium satellites/ground network at close (2027).
Less: Depreciation (155.7) (257.1) (254.5) (266.5) (271.0) (276.6) (292.8) (300.1) (309.2) (319.9) Depreciation rate x opening PP&E (Assumptions).
End of period 556.0 2,394.2 2,377.4 2,505.7 2,558.0 2,621.1 2,789.3 2,867.1 2,962.5 3,074.2 3,201.2 BOP + capex + acquired - depreciation.
DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION
Depreciation (from PP&E) 155.7 257.1 254.5 266.5 271.0 276.6 292.8 300.1 309.2 319.9
Amortization: existing intangibles 40.0 38.0 36.0 34.0 32.0 30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 22.0
Amortization: Iridium intangibles 30.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Estimate; purchase price allocation not disclosed.
Depreciation & amortization - total 225.7 355.1 350.5 360.5 363.0 366.6 380.8 386.1 393.2 401.9 Feeds the income statement.
GOODWILL, INTANGIBLES & OTHER NON CURRENT ASSETS
Beginning of period 656.3 6,211.6 6,113.6 6,017.6 5,923.6 5,831.6 5,741.6 5,653.6 5,567.6 5,483.6 BOP = previous year EOP.
Less: Amortization of intangible assets (70.0) (98.0) (96.0) (94.0) (92.0) (90.0) (88.0) (86.0) (84.0) (82.0)
Plus: Goodwill & intangibles acquired 5,625.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iridium purchase price less net assets (2027).
End of period 656.3 6,211.6 6,113.6 6,017.6 5,923.6 5,831.6 5,741.6 5,653.6 5,567.6 5,483.6 5,401.6
RETAINED EARNINGS
Beginning of period (1,184.7) (1,218.6) (1,001.1) (514.3) 261.3 1,302.1 2,598.3 4,136.9 5,899.1 7,884.9 BOP = previous year EOP.
Plus: Net income (33.9) 217.5 486.7 775.7 1,040.8 1,296.2 1,538.6 1,762.2 1,985.8 2,211.3 Reference from income statement.
Less: Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 No dividends.
Less: Repurchases 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 No buybacks.
End of period (1,184.7) (1,218.6) (1,001.1) (514.3) 261.3 1,302.1 2,598.3 4,136.9 5,899.1 7,884.9 10,096.2 BOP + net income - dividends - repurchases.
COMMON STOCK & APIC
Beginning of period 6,568.0 9,531.0 10,199.0 10,319.0 10,449.0 10,586.8 10,732.9 10,887.7 11,051.8 11,225.8 BOP = previous year EOP.
Plus: Stock based compensation 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 137.8 146.1 154.8 164.1 174.0 184.4
Plus: Equity issued for cash 0.0 558.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 April 2028 forward sale.
Plus: Equity issued for Iridium 2,863.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stock portion of the Iridium price (non-cash).
Plus: Convertible notes converted 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
End of period 6,568.0 9,531.0 10,199.0 10,319.0 10,449.0 10,586.8 10,732.9 10,887.7 11,051.8 11,225.8 11,410.2
LONG TERM DEBT
Beginning of period 1.7 1,751.7 1,751.7 1,651.7 1,551.7 1,451.7 1,351.7 1,251.7 1,151.7 1,051.7 BOP = previous year EOP.
Plus: Debt assumed / (repaid) 1,750.0 0.0 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) Iridium loan $1.75B in 2027; $100M/yr paydown from 2029.
Less: Converted to equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
End of period 1.7 1,751.7 1,751.7 1,651.7 1,551.7 1,451.7 1,351.7 1,251.7 1,151.7 1,051.7 951.7
INTEREST EXPENSE AND INTEREST INCOME
Long term debt - end of period (from B/S) 1.7 1,751.7 1,751.7 1,651.7 1,551.7 1,451.7 1,351.7 1,251.7 1,151.7 1,051.7 951.7
Interest rate on debt 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Other interest expense 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Total interest expense (to I/S) 47.8 91.6 89.1 84.1 79.1 74.1 69.1 64.1 59.1 54.1 Other interest + rate x average of BOP & EOP debt.
Cash - beginning of period 4,187.2 1,566.1 2,552.3 3,065.0 4,034.7 5,201.9 6,526.5 8,192.2 10,058.4 12,141.0 Prior year cash (avoids a circular formula).
Less: half of Iridium cash payment (1,337.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Deal closes mid-2027, so cash is lower for half the year.
Interest rate on cash 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Interest income (to I/S) 99.7 54.8 89.3 107.3 141.2 182.1 228.4 286.7 352.0 424.9 (Cash BOP - half deal payment) x rate.
EARNINGS PER SHARE
Fiscal year 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Net income (182.6) (190.2) (198.2) (172.8) (33.9) 217.5 486.7 775.7 1,040.8 1,296.2 1,538.6 1,762.2 1,985.8 2,211.3 Reference from I/S.
Diluted shares 481.8 495.9 530.7 637.0 709.0 752.0 772.0 790.0 805.8 821.9 838.4 855.1 872.2 889.7 From Assumptions.
Diluted EPS ($0.38) ($0.38) ($0.37) ($0.27) ($0.05) $0.29 $0.63 $0.98 $1.29 $1.58 $1.84 $2.06 $2.28 $2.49 Net income / diluted shares.
P/E at current share price n/m n/m 201.6x 92.5x 59.4x 45.1x 37.0x 31.8x 28.3x 25.6x 23.5x
ASSUMPTIONS & SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Blue = inputs. Everything above is driven by this section.
Active scenario Bull
SCENARIO ADJUSTMENTS
Scenario Space Sys growth adj. New HASTE wins (x) Neutron GM adj. SG&A adj. ($mm)
Base 0.0% 1.0x 0.0% 0.0
Bull 5.0% 2.0x 5.0% 0.0 Neutron launches to 38 by 2036, faster reuse, more HASTE wins.
Bear (5.0%) 0.0x (10.0%) 0.0 Neutron slips to 2028, ~40% of Base launches, no new HASTE wins.
REVENUE BUILD
Driver 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P Comments
Electron launches 20 28 34 39 46 50 52 54 55 55 55 18 in 2025. Plateaus mid-2030s.
HASTE launches: contracted 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Space Force, MACH-TB 2.0, Anduril.
HASTE launches: new wins (Base) 0 0 3 6 10 12 14 15 15 15 15 Not signed yet. Multiplied by scenario factor.
Neutron launches: Base 0 2 4 8 12 16 20 24 26 28 30 3 pads from 2032 + reuse.
Neutron launches: Bull 0 2 5 10 15 20 25 30 33 35 38
Neutron launches: Bear 0 0 1 3 5 7 8 10 11 12 13
Electron price per launch 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 Held flat.
HASTE price per launch 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
Neutron price per launch 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 Mgmt $50-55M.
Neutron gross margin (Base) 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 40.0% 43.0% 45.0% 47.0% 48.0% 50.0% 50.0% Improves with booster reuse.
Neutron launches (active scenario) 0 2 5 10 15 20 25 30 33 35 38
Neutron revenue 0.0 110.0 275.0 550.0 825.0 1,100.0 1,375.0 1,650.0 1,815.0 1,925.0 2,090.0 Launches x price.
Launch Services revenue 230.0 498.0 804.0 1,211.5 1,666.0 2,035.0 2,387.0 2,709.0 2,882.5 2,992.5 3,157.5 Electron + HASTE + Neutron.
Space Systems growth (Base) 35.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% Backlog-driven; fades.
Space Systems revenue 732.0 1,024.8 1,332.2 1,665.3 1,998.4 2,358.1 2,735.4 3,118.3 3,523.7 3,946.5 4,380.6 Prior year x (1 + growth + scenario adj.). FY26 = H1A $326M + H2E.
Iridium revenue 0.0 490.5 1,030.0 1,076.4 1,119.5 1,164.2 1,205.0 1,241.1 1,278.4 1,316.7 1,356.2 2027 = half year (closes mid-2027).
Iridium revenue growth 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Fades to 3%.
Total revenue 962.0 2,013.3 3,166.3 3,953.2 4,783.8 5,557.3 6,327.3 7,068.4 7,684.6 8,255.7 8,894.4
Revenue growth 59.9% 109.3% 57.3% 24.9% 21.0% 16.2% 13.9% 11.7% 8.7% 7.4% 7.7%
Organic growth (ex-Iridium) 59.9% 58.3% 40.3% 34.7% 27.4% 19.9% 16.6% 13.8% 9.9% 8.3% 8.6%
COSTS & OTHER
Fiscal year 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
COGS % revenue (ex-Neutron) 62.5% 60.2% 59.8% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% Electron/HASTE, Space Systems, Iridium blend.
R&D ($mm) 0.0 350.0 350.0 370.0 400.0 420.0 441.0 463.1 486.2 510.5 536.0 Same in all scenarios.
R&D growth 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
SG&A ($mm, ex-deal amortization) 0.0 425.0 530.0 590.0 645.0 683.7 724.7 768.2 814.3 863.2 914.9 Incl. Iridium + ~$40M deal costs in 2027.
SG&A growth 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Acquisition amortization 30.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Est. ~$600M Iridium intangibles over 10 yrs.
Tax rate 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% NOLs shelter early profits.
Diluted shares (mm) 0.0 709.0 752.0 772.0 790.0 805.8 821.9 838.4 855.1 872.2 889.7 Incl. 41.3M Iridium shares (half 2027), forward sale 2028.
Share count growth 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SBC dilution.
Interest yield on cash 3.5% On prior year-end cash.
Interest rate on Iridium term loan 5.0%
Other interest expense ($mm/yr) 4.0 Leases / other.
Iridium COGS % of its revenue 54.0%
WORKING CAPITAL DRIVERS
Fiscal year 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Rocket Lab revenue (ex-Iridium) 962.0 1,522.8 2,136.2 2,876.8 3,664.4 4,393.1 5,122.4 5,827.3 6,406.2 6,939.0 7,538.1
Rocket Lab COGS (ex-Iridium) 642.7 1,029.2 1,404.3 1,811.4 2,184.9 2,573.1 2,958.7 3,318.7 3,625.8 3,890.4 4,222.7 Cost of sales is negative on Historicals, so flip the sign.
Rocket Lab non-Neutron revenue 962.0 1,412.8 1,861.2 2,326.8 2,839.4 3,293.1 3,747.4 4,177.3 4,591.2 5,014.0 5,448.1
Receivables % revenue 22.0% 21.0% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% Hist 20/23/17%.
Inventory % COGS 45.0% 43.0% 42.0% 41.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Neutron hardware added to inventory 50.0 50.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Neutron hardware in inventory (cumulative) 50.0 100.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0
Other current assets % revenue 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%
Accounts payable % COGS 14.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Other current liabilities % revenue 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
Deferred revenue % revenue 36.5% 30.0% 27.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% SDA prepayments unwind.
Other non-current liabilities % revenue 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8%
CAPEX & DEPRECIATION
Fiscal year 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Core capex % non-Neutron revenue 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Reverts to ~6%.
Capex: core 0.0 98.9 130.3 162.9 198.8 214.0 224.8 250.6 275.5 300.8 326.9
Capex: Neutron infrastructure 15.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 ~$5M per added launch.
Capex: Neutron launch pads 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd pad 2029, 3rd pad 2032.
Capex: Launch Complex 4 (Alaska) 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capex: Iridium maintenance 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 FY25 $100M.
Capex: Iridium constellation replacement 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Placeholder. Satellites expected to last to mid-2030s.
Total capex 0.0 173.9 240.3 382.9 318.8 334.0 444.8 370.6 395.5 420.8 446.9
Depreciation rate: Rocket Lab (% opening PP&E) 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Depreciation rate: Iridium (% opening PP&E) 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
Rocket Lab PP&E (end of year) 556.0 624.3 702.1 914.8 1,042.1 1,171.9 1,399.6 1,530.3 1,672.7 1,826.3 1,990.5
Rocket Lab depreciation 0.0 55.6 62.4 70.2 91.5 104.2 117.2 140.0 153.0 167.3 182.6 Rate x opening PP&E.
Iridium PP&E (end of year) 0.0 1,769.9 1,675.2 1,590.9 1,515.9 1,449.2 1,389.8 1,336.9 1,289.8 1,248.0 1,210.7
Iridium depreciation 0.0 100.1 194.7 184.3 175.0 166.8 159.4 152.9 147.1 141.9 137.3 Half year on PP&E acquired.
Amortization: existing RKLB intangibles 40.0 38.0 36.0 34.0 32.0 30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 22.0
EQUITY, DEBT & IRIDIUM ACQUISITION
Fiscal year Jun-26A 2026E 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P 2031P 2032P 2033P 2034P 2035P 2036P
Stock-based compensation 0.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 137.8 146.1 154.8 164.1 174.0 184.4 Grows with SG&A.
Equity issued for cash (net) 0.0 558.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Apr-2028 forward sale.
Equity issued for Iridium 2,863.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ~41.3M shares (8-K).
Convertible notes converted 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt assumed / (repaid) 1,750.0 0.0 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) Iridium term loan; $100M/yr paydown from 2029.
Iridium owned at year-end (1 = yes) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Iridium balance sheet growth 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Cash paid to Iridium shareholders 2,860.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iridium cash acquired 185.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iridium PP&E acquired (book value) 1,820.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iridium receivables 104.5 0.0 109.3 112.5 115.9 119.4 123.0 126.7 130.5 134.4 138.4 142.6 Col F = Iridium Jun-26 balance (10-Q), grown 3%/yr once owned.
Iridium inventory 63.5 0.0 66.3 68.3 70.4 72.5 74.7 76.9 79.2 81.6 84.0 86.6
Iridium other current assets 24.9 0.0 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.3 30.2 31.1 32.0 33.0 34.0
Iridium accounts payable 11.5 0.0 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7
Iridium deferred revenue 37.2 0.0 38.9 40.1 41.3 42.5 43.8 45.1 46.5 47.9 49.3 50.8
Iridium other current liabilities 86.8 0.0 90.7 93.5 96.3 99.1 102.1 105.2 108.3 111.6 114.9 118.4
Iridium other non-current liabilities 207.8 0.0 217.2 223.7 230.4 237.4 244.5 251.8 259.4 267.2 275.2 283.4
Goodwill & intangibles added 5,625.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug: price paid (cash + stock + debt) less net assets acquired.

DCF

Rocket Lab DCF
Ticker RKLB
Date 10/28/26 Today's Share Price $58.31
Assumptions
Valuation Assumptions
WACC 16.0%
TGR 4.0%
Income Statement 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Revenue 244.6 436.2 601.8 962.0 2,013.3 3,166.3 3,953.2 4,783.8 5,557.3 6,327.3 7,068.4 7,684.6 8,255.7 8,894.4
% growth 78.3% 38.0% 59.9% 109.3% 57.3% 24.9% 21.0% 16.2% 13.9% 11.7% 8.7% 7.4% 7.7%
EBIT (177.9) (189.8) (228.8) (250.2) (85.8) 265.7 540.6 889.4 1,191.8 1,492.2 1,788.3 2,008.0 2,220.7 2,428.3
% of sales (72.7%) (43.5%) (38.0%) (26.0%) (4.3%) 8.4% 13.7% 18.6% 21.4% 23.6% 25.3% 26.1% 26.9% 27.3%
Taxes (EBIT x tax rate) 0.0 13.3 54.1 133.4 202.6 283.5 375.5 421.7 466.3 509.9
% of EBIT 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0%
Cash Flow Items 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
D&A 28.5 33.7 43.9 83.4 225.7 355.1 350.5 360.5 363.0 366.6 380.8 386.1 393.2 401.9
% of sales 11.7% 7.7% 7.3% 8.7% 11.2% 11.2% 8.9% 7.5% 6.5% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5%
CapEx 173.9 240.3 382.9 318.8 334.0 444.8 370.6 395.5 420.8 446.9
% of sales 8.6% 7.6% 9.7% 6.7% 6.0% 7.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%
Change in NWC (152.6) (117.6) (85.4) (9.0) (62.6) (62.0) (56.8) (50.0) (41.7) (55.4)
% of sales (7.6%) (3.7%) (2.2%) (0.2%) (1.1%) (1.0%) (0.8%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.6%)
Acquisitions (Iridium) 2,675.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DCF 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Revenue 2,013.3 3,166.3 3,953.2 4,783.8 5,557.3 6,327.3 7,068.4 7,684.6 8,255.7 8,894.4
% growth 109.3% 57.3% 24.9% 21.0% 16.2% 13.9% 11.7% 8.7% 7.4% 7.7%
EBIT (85.8) 265.7 540.6 889.4 1,191.8 1,492.2 1,788.3 2,008.0 2,220.7 2,428.3
% margin (4.3%) 8.4% 13.7% 18.6% 21.4% 23.6% 25.3% 26.1% 26.9% 27.3%
Taxes 0.0 13.3 54.1 133.4 202.6 283.5 375.5 421.7 466.3 509.9
% of EBIT 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0%
EBIAT (85.8) 252.4 486.5 756.0 989.2 1,208.7 1,412.8 1,586.3 1,754.3 1,918.4
D&A 225.7 355.1 350.5 360.5 363.0 366.6 380.8 386.1 393.2 401.9
% of sales 11.2% 11.2% 8.9% 7.5% 6.5% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5%
CapEx 173.9 240.3 382.9 318.8 334.0 444.8 370.6 395.5 420.8 446.9
% of sales 8.6% 7.6% 9.7% 6.7% 6.0% 7.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%
Change in NWC (152.6) (117.6) (85.4) (9.0) (62.6) (62.0) (56.8) (50.0) (41.7) (55.4)
% of sales (7.6%) (3.7%) (2.2%) (0.2%) (1.1%) (1.0%) (0.8%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.6%)
Acquisitions 2,675.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unlevered FCF (2,861.6) 249.7 368.8 788.6 955.5 1,068.5 1,366.1 1,526.9 1,684.9 1,818.0
Present Value of FCF (2,467.0) 185.6 236.3 435.7 455.1 438.7 483.6 466.0 443.3 412.4

WACC

WACC
WACC = (% Equity x Cost of Equity) + (% Debt x Cost of Debt x (1 - Tax rate))
Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Beta x Market Risk Premium)
Debt 1,752
% Debt 4.0%
Cost of Debt 5.0%
Tax Rate 21.0%
Equity Value 41,593
% Equity 96.0%
Cost of Equity 16.5%
Risk Free Rate 5.0% 10-yr Treasury, 10/23/26.
Beta 2.30
Market Risk Premium 5.0%
Debt + Equity 43,344
WACC 15.99%